Vietnam's Birth Rate Hits Record Low In 2024 Despite Propaganda Push

Vietnam experienced a significant drop in its birth rate in 2024, marking a concerning trend. According to Newsweek, the birth rate fell to 1.91 births per woman, the lowest since records began and below the replacement rate for the third consecutive year. This follows declines from 1.93 in 2023 and 2.01 in 2022. A replacement rate of 2.1 is considered essential for maintaining population stability.

The declining birth rate raises concerns about sustaining economic development and providing for the growing elderly population. Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the health ministry's population authority, warned that Vietnam's population of 100 million could begin to shrink by mid-century, according to the Vietnam News Agency. Pham stated that if the replacement rate is restored and maintained, annual population growth could reach 0.17 per cent, or 200,000 people per year. However, current projections suggest an annual decline of 0.04 per cent between 2054 and 2059, accelerating to 0.18 per cent, or 200,000 people annually, between 2064 and 2069.

Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong highlighted Vietnam's gender imbalance of 112 male births for every 100 female births as another pressing issue, though recent figures show slight improvement. At a conference held by the health ministry's population department in Hanoi, Nguyen called for initiatives to improve "population quality," including enhanced elderly healthcare, better communication, and improved access to reproductive health and family planning services.

Officials fear Vietnam may follow the trajectory of other East Asian nations, such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, where fertility rates have been steadily declining. Despite Vietnam's strong economic growth, with GDP increasing by over 5 per cent annually (except during the pandemic years), its ageing population poses challenges. By 2049, Vietnam is projected to become a "super-aged society," with over 20 per cent of its population aged 65 or older.

Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen stated that the health ministry is studying and proposing policies to stabilize the fertility rate, drawing from global experiences. The ministry is drafting a population law, set to be presented to the National Assembly in 2025.

The proposed law aims to sustain replacement-level fertility rates, with measures tailored to different demographics and regions. Provisions include encouraging women to give birth before the age of 35 and eliminating penalties for having a third child, Le Thanh Dung of the Vietnam Population Authority told Vietnam Plus.