As the Russia-Ukraine war drags on, analysts say that China is keenly watching the conflict that has been unfolding for the past four months, in a bid to draw lessons for a possible invasion of Taiwan.
The latest telephonic exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 15 highlights the growing ties between the two countries in the wake of the Ukraine conflict.
Xi on his 69th birthday called Vladimir Putin to reassure the Russian leader that "bilateral relations have maintained a sound development momentum in the face of global turbulence and transformations."
The Chinese President's pledge to Moscow for more support on "sovereignty and security" is tantamount to the Chinese leader disdainfully dismissing all earlier warnings from the West that China risked major reputational damage by not condemning the Kremlin.
But what is more worrying for the leaders in the West is that Xi doubled down still further, pledging to deepen strategic coordination between the two countries.
Writing for the Providence magazine Jianli Yang and Yan Yu, contended that Xi must accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB), and build an international commercial network based on it, free of entanglement with the dollar (USD).
They said Xi must also pressure and assist those CCP political families and oligarchs who are reticent to transfer or shield overseas assets to do so. "The longer they wait, the more likely they are to turn against Xi due to the losses they would suffer in response to substantial sanctions imposed by Western countries."
Yang and Yu pointed out that one of the main reasons why the U.S. and NATO have thus far spared the rod with respect to the invasion of Ukraine is Putin's nuclear threats. "The lesson other nations have learned is undoubtedly that nuclear threats work."
"Should an attempted Chinese conquest of Taiwan also enter a period of stalemate, preventing Chinese domestic anti-war activists from using international public opinion to enhance their strength and promote political change may be Xi's first priority," they added.
Regardless of the side which wins the Russia-Ukraine war, Yang and Yu said as long as Putin survives, it is in the Xi regime's best interests, because Moscow will continue to consume the attention of the democratic world against long-term threats to it.
"To minimize the positive impact of Xi's influence, Western powers such as the United States and the EU should effectively resist the brutal expansionism of autocratic countries by providing sufficient support to Ukraine to help Ukraine to quickly win the war, thus turning the substantial unity of the democratic world into a decisive military factor," they added.
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