Islamabad:
For the first time in months, President Asif Ali Zardari is doing what presidents normally do - giving rousing speeches, traveling around the country and asserting himself publicly as the country's chief official.
This is unusual behavior for a leader who rarely left the presidential palace, except to travel abroad, and hunkered down in silence under a barrage of media criticism for months last year, leading many to conclude that he was losing his grip on power. "The doomsday scenario has not come to pass," said Cyril Almeida, a columnist for Dawn, an English-language daily newspaper.
It now seems more likely that Zardari will survive in power. But he remains a weak, unpopular leader, leaving the larger question for Pakistan unchanged: When will its elected leaders be capable of solving the vast assortment of crushing economic, security and social problems facing the country?
It is an urgent question, too, for the Obama administration, which is depending on cooperation from Pakistan, its prickly ally, to help carry out its new war strategy for neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistan's western mountains are a sanctuary for militants, and the administration has been pressing Pakistan to do more to flush them out. Defence Secretary Robert M Gates will visit Pakistan on Thursday for that reason.
While Zardari has been receptive to American overtures, championing the war against militants far earlier than any of his political opponents, his weakness has hobbled his ability to effectively defend the American policies he supports, like last year's large American aid package.
As a result, American officials continue to rely heavily on their relationship with the country's powerful military, a tradition that goes back decades, but that also serves to undermine the Obama administration's goal of strengthening democracy here.
Zardari started his campaign on December 27 in the province of Sindh. He then traveled to Baluchistan, a western province, and this week he has been in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province. He will travel next to Peshawar, the beleaguered capital of Pakistan's war-torn North-West Frontier province, his spokesman said.
Newspapers took notice. Daily Times, an English-language daily newspaper, went so far as to say in an editorial on Saturday: "All the hopes of the Zardari bashers have crashed to the ground."
But while Zardari may have reclaimed some political space, rallying the grass roots of his party, and seizing headlines that even one month ago had belonged to voices hostile to him, many analysts see his belated outreach as a last-ditch attempt to fend off his enemies and salvage his presidency.
"He's come to the conclusion that if judiciary or the military want to knock him out, they can," said Hasan Askari Rizvi, an analyst in Lahore. "But he wants to fight back. That has given him a new lease on life, but his basic problem remains the same."
The most serious of those vulnerabilities has always been his strained relationship with Pakistan's military, a powerful institution whose leaders have ruled the country for about half of Pakistan's 62-year history. When he took office in September 2008, Zardari struck a conciliatory tone with India, the military's nemesis. He angered the military again when he indicated that intelligence should be under civilian control.
He has since backed off those positions. This month he offered remarks praising the army. He removed another irritant in December, giving civilian control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to his prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, a pliable leader more palatable to the military. But another potential for confrontation looms this year, when the army chief's term expires, as the power to appoint a new one is Zardari's.
This is unusual behavior for a leader who rarely left the presidential palace, except to travel abroad, and hunkered down in silence under a barrage of media criticism for months last year, leading many to conclude that he was losing his grip on power. "The doomsday scenario has not come to pass," said Cyril Almeida, a columnist for Dawn, an English-language daily newspaper.
It now seems more likely that Zardari will survive in power. But he remains a weak, unpopular leader, leaving the larger question for Pakistan unchanged: When will its elected leaders be capable of solving the vast assortment of crushing economic, security and social problems facing the country?
It is an urgent question, too, for the Obama administration, which is depending on cooperation from Pakistan, its prickly ally, to help carry out its new war strategy for neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistan's western mountains are a sanctuary for militants, and the administration has been pressing Pakistan to do more to flush them out. Defence Secretary Robert M Gates will visit Pakistan on Thursday for that reason.
While Zardari has been receptive to American overtures, championing the war against militants far earlier than any of his political opponents, his weakness has hobbled his ability to effectively defend the American policies he supports, like last year's large American aid package.
As a result, American officials continue to rely heavily on their relationship with the country's powerful military, a tradition that goes back decades, but that also serves to undermine the Obama administration's goal of strengthening democracy here.
Zardari started his campaign on December 27 in the province of Sindh. He then traveled to Baluchistan, a western province, and this week he has been in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province. He will travel next to Peshawar, the beleaguered capital of Pakistan's war-torn North-West Frontier province, his spokesman said.
Newspapers took notice. Daily Times, an English-language daily newspaper, went so far as to say in an editorial on Saturday: "All the hopes of the Zardari bashers have crashed to the ground."
But while Zardari may have reclaimed some political space, rallying the grass roots of his party, and seizing headlines that even one month ago had belonged to voices hostile to him, many analysts see his belated outreach as a last-ditch attempt to fend off his enemies and salvage his presidency.
"He's come to the conclusion that if judiciary or the military want to knock him out, they can," said Hasan Askari Rizvi, an analyst in Lahore. "But he wants to fight back. That has given him a new lease on life, but his basic problem remains the same."
The most serious of those vulnerabilities has always been his strained relationship with Pakistan's military, a powerful institution whose leaders have ruled the country for about half of Pakistan's 62-year history. When he took office in September 2008, Zardari struck a conciliatory tone with India, the military's nemesis. He angered the military again when he indicated that intelligence should be under civilian control.
He has since backed off those positions. This month he offered remarks praising the army. He removed another irritant in December, giving civilian control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to his prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, a pliable leader more palatable to the military. But another potential for confrontation looms this year, when the army chief's term expires, as the power to appoint a new one is Zardari's.
